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Jennifer Kesse Disappearance Discussion
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rd



Joined: 13 Sep 2002
Posts: 9247
Location: Jacksonville, FL

PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nancy wrote:
Nancy wrote:
What if he crossed the lane at the palm tree and is hardly visible in the video?
rd wrote:
You can see the car across the lane. You can see a tree just beyond the car. You can see pretty clearly the grass on the other side of the lane and the brick wall at the entrance from Texas. We'd be able to see him as well as we see the car.

Which I'm ashamed to say I've tried seeing things in the reflection in the car windows.
LOL Well, at least no-one can accuse us of not trying.

Yes, I agree that we could see him--but with enough detail to make a difference? (We are a lot smaller than a car, and detail is needed to make an id).

They released the frontal face shot and you're the only one that caught it, RD.

I'm probably barking up the wrong tree, but I'm just sayin'


the wrong palm tree, to boot. :)
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myserty64



Joined: 12 Jul 2018
Posts: 82
Location: Gold Coast QLD Australia

PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I find your work outstanding Nancy.
I'm wondering out loud if there was a dumpster nearby where the POI could have put a purse?
He had to put Jennifer's belongings somewhere. Did it take the POI 20 seconds to accomplish that task?
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Markybug



Joined: 13 Jul 2018
Posts: 57
Location: Scotland

PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Could he have stopped to talk / interact with someone??..
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rd



Joined: 13 Sep 2002
Posts: 9247
Location: Jacksonville, FL

PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The dumpster is just down the lane past the palm tree, on the other side like where the car is parked, but on down and out of the picture.

Note that turning around and coming back and walking out the entrance to Texas gains nothing. There is no sidewalk, one would have to walk in the grass or cross Texas. The lane is a natural walking lane running alongside Texas to the corner at Americana.

I guess all this is because the tracking dog (based on arrows provided on the map) didn't go where we know the POI went and went where quite frankly a dog with some sense would go, back where they came from in as expeditious manner as possible. Which he did.

Concerning the time gap, we know that the time stamps on the three still images were stamped very closely together, i.e., the camera sent them to the server closely together. There is no telling what the real time of the first still is. It is certainly more than a second before POI was at the palm tree.

There is no missing 20 seconds. At a minimum it is 20 seconds minus the time to walk from the left side of the gate to the palm tree and turn around. And I would argue knowing that the images are not sent correctly spaced out that any basis based on the time stamps of those stills is not valid relative to time stamps from other camera sent to the same server is not valid for conjecturing missing time, activities, etc.

Not that it won't be done, but totally baseless in my opinion. As baseless as the same time stamp on images 1 and 2, and time stamp on image 3 one second later. We could conjecture the POI is Flash and have just as much merit.

Not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but have to look at what we're drawing conclusions and speculating from. And there's nothing there there.
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Elk573



Joined: 08 Aug 2018
Posts: 26

PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 2:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wanted to say thank you for the deep analysis people have been doing on this case. Iím trying to catch up as much as I can on the info that has already been provided and thereís a lot of info on this board! But the analysis Iíve been following these past few days has been excellent! Asking questions and bouncing ideas off each other... Sometimes thatís how cases like these are solved.

Iím curious on something... What is the consensus on the Jennifer Kesse podcast? Is this something you have or have not listened to? The good thing about the podcast is that it has generated at least some new tips and thereís one in particular Iíd like to explore.

Thanks!
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Nancy



Joined: 11 Jul 2018
Posts: 283

PostPosted: Sat Aug 11, 2018 5:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Markybug wrote:
Could he have stopped to talk / interact with someone??..
If this were the case, two things come to my mind:

1) The additional person should have appeared in other parts of the video. Unless they had arranged a rendezvous, and the 2nd person got there before the POI parked Jennifer's vehicle and stayed until after the POI walked out of camera range. (But I think #2 below would come into play).

2) They most likely would have released that person's image as a second person of interest.
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Nancy



Joined: 11 Jul 2018
Posts: 283

PostPosted: Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rd wrote:
The dumpster is just down the lane past the palm tree, on the other side like where the car is parked, but on down and out of the picture.

Note that turning around and coming back and walking out the entrance to Texas gains nothing. There is no sidewalk, one would have to walk in the grass or cross Texas. The lane is a natural walking lane running alongside Texas to the corner at Americana.

I guess all this is because the tracking dog (based on arrows provided on the map) didn't go where we know the POI went and went where quite frankly a dog with some sense would go, back where they came from in as expeditious manner as possible. Which he did.
The only thing I can think of that the POI might have gained by walking to the palm tree is the ability to look back at where he parked Jennifer's car.

But, yes, you're totally correct in that I came up with it as I was trying to understand why Bo would have tracked that way; if she really did.

Dogs of this nature are highly trained, RD. And they don't just train them as puppies and forget it. Their education must be kept current. Their work hours and the cases they work are officially recorded. Their human's can be subpoenaed to court and must take the witness stand on their behalf. The training and work records of the dog will be entered into official court record just like any expert witness; and it is left to the jury to decide if the dog's findings are credible based on its training, education and work experience.

So, I really do doubt that Bo would have simply ran back to where she came from as quickly as she could. I believe she was 6-years-old; meaning right about in the prime of her adult life. No baby, or out-of-control teenager.

Speaking of that, though, do you know how it happened that she was at the Mosiac first; and then taken to the HOG? My understanding is that Jenn's vehicle was discovered at about 8:10 am and within the hour Bo and her handler were brought in. But it doesn't say where they were "brought in" from. Had they been at the Mosiac just by coincidence?


rd wrote:
Concerning the time gap, we know that the time stamps on the three still images were stamped very closely together, i.e., the camera sent them to the server closely together. There is no telling what the real time of the first still is. It is certainly more than a second before POI was at the palm tree.
I'm seriously lost here. Why is there "no telling what the real time of the first still is"? It's time stamped--but you don't think the time stamp is correct? Are we taking about the milliseconds? (I think that's what they are called?)


rd wrote:
There is no missing 20 seconds. At a minimum it is 20 seconds minus the time to walk from the left side of the gate to the palm tree and turn around. And I would argue knowing that the images are not sent correctly spaced out that any basis based on the time stamps of those stills is not valid relative to time stamps from other camera sent to the same server is not valid for conjecturing missing time, activities, etc.

Not that it won't be done, but totally baseless in my opinion. As baseless as the same time stamp on images 1 and 2, and time stamp on image 3 one second later. We could conjecture the POI is Flash and have just as much merit.
Well, I'm even more lost in trying to understand these two paragraphs; but that is probably because I haven't got the first one straight in my head yet. :>

But my brain can understand that there are 20 missing seconds when the video switches from Camera 2 to Camera 3; and the podcast guy says he talked to someone who assured him the cameras were synced.

I know you are equally qualified, Rd; maybe more so. So please don't think I'm disputing what you are saying. I just don't understand it.


rd wrote:
Not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but have to look at what we're drawing conclusions and speculating from. And there's nothing there there.
No, no. I'm not taking it like that. That's what speculation is all about, isn't it? If there is no there there someone needs to tell me. I wish I could understand, though.
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Nancy



Joined: 11 Jul 2018
Posts: 283

PostPosted: Sat Aug 11, 2018 8:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

myserty64 wrote:
I find your work outstanding Nancy.
I'm wondering out loud if there was a dumpster nearby where the POI could have put a purse?
He had to put Jennifer's belongings somewhere. Did it take the POI 20 seconds to accomplish that task?
Thank you, Mystery.

I have this image of one dumpster at the HOG. I'm not sure if it is in the location mentioned by RD in his response, but I think that might be S. Texas Avenue to the left in the picture.

I'll link the individual picture to give thanks to the owner and I'll also add the link to the "Bucket". I find there are some interesting ones in it--quite a few of dumpsters, but others, too. (I'm guessing they were all taken not long after Jennifer disappeared, but don't see a date to confirm).

Anyway, first the image I mentioned above with thanks to the owner for keeping it public:


Link to individual image: http://photobucket.com/gallery/user/HelpFindJennifer/media/cGF0aDovRFNDMDY1NDcuanBn/?ref=1

Link to Bucket: http://s896.photobucket.com/user/HelpFindJennifer/library/?sort=3&page=1
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Nancy



Joined: 11 Jul 2018
Posts: 283

PostPosted: Sat Aug 11, 2018 8:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Elk573 wrote:
I wanted to say thank you for the deep analysis people have been doing on this case. Iím trying to catch up as much as I can on the info that has already been provided and thereís a lot of info on this board! But the analysis Iíve been following these past few days has been excellent! Asking questions and bouncing ideas off each other... Sometimes thatís how cases like these are solved.

Iím curious on something... What is the consensus on the Jennifer Kesse podcast? Is this something you have or have not listened to? The good thing about the podcast is that it has generated at least some new tips and thereís one in particular Iíd like to explore.

Thanks!
Well, I will only speak for myself here.

I was disappointed in the "narrowness" of the podcast.

But I listened to every episode--most of them more than once, including the sidebars.

And you'll notice I often quote from it, making sure I give credit by linking it. :)

I'm a little bit sad to say that most of their "tips" I simply dismissed and didn't find it hard to understand why law enforcement didn't seem too eager to follow-up at their origin. (To say the least).

However, you have me curious as to your "one in particular".

Discussion is always good. Maybe I didn't pay enough attention, and missed something important.
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Nancy



Joined: 11 Jul 2018
Posts: 283

PostPosted: Sat Aug 11, 2018 9:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RD, this is going to drive me crazy unless I show you.

So, I might as well show you; even if you fall off your chair laughing at me.

When I was trying to understand about the timestamps on the images, I opened the video and started taking screenshots.

But I took two of the POI at the palm tree: the first one at the hour plus 00:28 and the second one at the hour plus 00:29.

Well, I think there is a difference at least in their clarity around the helmet area.

I'll add them here:







The one I'm adding below is what I call the "original" from your Blow-Ups page. I'm just adding it for ease of comparison, but do you know how it came to have that slide-bar on the bottom, RD? Was it released like that, or is that from a screenshot you did of it? I don't think it is even on the Jennifer Kesse.com site anymore. The only place I can find it is here.

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myserty64



Joined: 12 Jul 2018
Posts: 82
Location: Gold Coast QLD Australia

PostPosted: Sat Aug 11, 2018 9:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for that stunning picture Nancy.
How convenient was that dumpster?

I'm kind of finished with Bo now.
Dogs track fairly well naturally. It is in their DNA.
I can't see how they need a huge amount of training to track a person. Especially a bloodhound; a breed that is renown for their tracking ability.

Why oh why did the dog follow a scent down South Texas Ave.?

If the POI used that dumpster did he then decide it might be a good idea to get off HTOG property and from the dumpster he 'ducked' onto South Texas?
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rd



Joined: 13 Sep 2002
Posts: 9247
Location: Jacksonville, FL

PostPosted: Sat Aug 11, 2018 10:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nancy wrote: So, I really do doubt that Bo would have simply ran back to where she came from as quickly as she could. I believe she was 6-years-old; meaning right about in the prime of her adult life. No baby, or out-of-control teenager.

But I am not blaming Bo. I am blaming the stupidity of the people using Bo.

Let's take a look at what Bo was exposed to and expected to make something of it.

Details were never made public of what the Orlando investigators did, but I am confident it went something along the lines of the following. Every statement and action they have made was at this level of stupidity.

1- Take the tracking dog to the Mosaic. Expose the dog to strong traces of Jennifer's scent.

2- Drive up Americana, turn into Texas, and into Huntingon on the Green. Stop and get out with the tracking dog at Jennifer's car.

3- Jennifer's car is permeated with Jennifer's scent. The car had been entered by probably more than one investigator, investigator's who also were at Jennifer's condo and drove up Americana to HOTG.

4- Open up Jennifer's car door and give Bo a sniff of Jennifer's car seat.
Really now, Bo is supposed to know to pick out the POI's scent from Jennifer and multiple investigators who poked around in the car? Oh yeah, the POI was the last one to sit on the car seat. wow.

5- We know Bo didn't select the the POI scent because Bo didn't track around the pool where we know he actuallly went.

6- At this point I can give you half a dozen reasons for Bo walking back out the gate and returning to Mosaic the way they came. Nobody will know which one, but in no particular order:
a) Bo recognized the overwhelming scent of Jennifer as where he just came from.
b) Bo recognized the scent of investigators as where he just came from.
c) Bo recognized the scent of the car as having come in the entrance and belonged where they just came from.
d) Bo recognized the scent of investigators as having come in the entrance and traversed the way they had just come, repeatedly.
e) Bo returned back the way they came because it made eminent sense given the stupidity he was exposed to.

Had Bo not been exposed to Jennifer's scent, had not been at Mosaic, had been brought south on Texas to Huntingon on the Green, had these investigators not been driving back and forth on Americana, and had Jennifer's car doors not been opened until this was done, then there would be something to talk about.

All we have to talk about now is how not to track a criminal.

Speaking of that, though, do you know how it happened that she was at the Mosiac first; and then taken to the HOG? My understanding is that Jenn's vehicle was discovered at about 8:10 am and within the hour Bo and her handler were brought in. But it doesn't say where they were "brought in" from. Had they been at the Mosiac just by coincidence?

Now that is interesting. if they brought Bo to HOTG without going to Mosaic, without investigators in her car looking for stuff first, then I will have to retract most of what I just said.

I would be glad to if that is actually what happened. I would be pleased to be wrong.
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Nancy



Joined: 11 Jul 2018
Posts: 283

PostPosted: Sat Aug 11, 2018 10:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

myserty64 wrote:
Thanks for that stunning picture Nancy.
How convenient was that dumpster?

I'm kind of finished with Bo now.
Dogs track fairly well naturally. It is in their DNA.
I can't see how they need a huge amount of training to track a person. Especially a bloodhound; a breed that is renown for their tracking ability.

Why oh why did the dog follow a scent down South Texas Ave.?

If the POI used that dumpster did he then decide it might be a good idea to get off HTOG property and from the dumpster he 'ducked' onto South Texas?
You're right, of course. They really do have what I call a natural God given ability.

This is a true story and I wish I could link it for you. I don't remember enough details like names or even the state, but it was all over the internet at the time. (So maybe you know of it).

Anyway, I believe it was Kentucky. A little girl went missing in the woods near her home, maybe 4 or 5 years old.

Nearly everyone had been looking for hours for this child and it was getting dark, so panic was setting in.

This one man thought about his friend who had a young hound, maybe two years old.

He stopped by and told his friend about the little missing girl and asked his friend to bring his hound and take a look.

At first, the guy said no because he didn't think his hound would know anything about tracking a human--he said that he had just got him for a buddy and had only taken him bird hunting a few times and he thought basically the dog was good company but that was about it.

Anyway the first guy left and then the dog owner got thinking and decided maybe he should at least show up for the search.

So he took his hound and went to the little girl's house and her parents let him and the dog in. They invited them into the child's bedroom and let the dog smell her sheets and the pajamas she had worn the night before.

Mystery, that untrained hound with no tracking experience what-so-ever found that child in about 45 minutes.

No kidding. True story.

But in Jennifer's case? Bo's handler was a law enforcement officer so she was properly trained, I'd bet on it.

And we can't even make sense of where she tracked? Nah, it doesn't make sense. I don't think we've got the full reveal.

They say the dumpsters were checked. If they found anything related to Jennifer's case, it's hidden in one of those binders you counted for us.

Just to note, there were dumpsters at the Mosiac, too.
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rd



Joined: 13 Sep 2002
Posts: 9247
Location: Jacksonville, FL

PostPosted: Sat Aug 11, 2018 11:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nancy wrote:
rd wrote:
Concerning the time gap, we know that the time stamps on the three still images were stamped very closely together, i.e., the camera sent them to the server closely together. There is no telling what the real time of the first still is. It is certainly more than a second before POI was at the palm tree.
I'm seriously lost here. Why is there "no telling what the real time of the first still is"? It's time stamped--but you don't think the time stamp is correct? Are we taking about the milliseconds? (I think that's what they are called?)


rd wrote:
There is no missing 20 seconds. At a minimum it is 20 seconds minus the time to walk from the left side of the gate to the palm tree and turn around. And I would argue knowing that the images are not sent correctly spaced out that any basis based on the time stamps of those stills is not valid relative to time stamps from other camera sent to the same server is not valid for conjecturing missing time, activities, etc.

Not that it won't be done, but totally baseless in my opinion. As baseless as the same time stamp on images 1 and 2, and time stamp on image 3 one second later. We could conjecture the POI is Flash and have just as much merit.
Well, I'm even more lost in trying to understand these two paragraphs; but that is probably because I haven't got the first one straight in my head yet. :>

But my brain can understand that there are 20 missing seconds when the video switches from Camera 2 to Camera 3; and the podcast guy says he talked to someone who assured him the cameras were synced.

I know you are equally qualified, Rd; maybe more so. So please don't think I'm disputing what you are saying. I just don't understand it.


Thanks for giving me an opportunity to better explain it, Nancy.

The time stamps on the three images are 27 seconds, 27 seconds, and 28 seconds after top of the hour (says 13:00 but was 12:00).

The cameras send images to something to store them, my research was this was likely VCR. The cameras don't have storage for the images, and I've read the storage device timestamps the images.

Take into account that this is not camera video streaming. If it were storage space would fill up rapidly. And you have multiple surveillance cameras sending images.

So to make storage space manageable the cameras have adjustable delays between images. I've see 1.5 seconds as a common delay. I've written a lot on this in the Jennifer Kesse POI photo analysis links thread, but it was ten years ago or so. There were tables for security administrators on how many hours could be stored based on the delay. The shorter the delay, the faster the tape would fill up and have to be changed.

We have a delay between the camera taking the next image, and we have time required for someone to walk a distance. Both things say two images in the same second and a third with POI at the palm tree in another second is not what happened. In other words, the time stamps were not applied accurately as the POI moved about.

We do know the third image is 28 seconds, and we know that the prior images took more than a second to happen. How much time? It could be 5 seconds. We don't know.

But the images for whatever reason got processed very closely together even though there should be at least 3 seconds reflected between the first and third image timestamps.

What that means is we can't take 13:00:27 seconds and say that's 20 seconds after the last timestamp we saw in the other surveillance camera because the 13:00:27 seconds isn't possible. It's backed up and grouped with two more images (27 and 28 seconds). If 27 for first was accurate, it would be at least 28 for second and at least 30 for third.

It's also reflected in how long it would take a person to walk from gate to palm tree. To take those steps across the gate in same second is unreasonable, and to get to the palm tree and turn around in another second is again unreasonable.

The image timestamps don't reflect the reality we know exists, and so we can guess what the first image timestamp really should be but it starts eating into those 20 seconds. It's sooner than 13:00:27.

How much sooner, and do we have as much as a 15 second gap? I don't know, but at some point it has less of a what did he do in that gap feel to it.

Probably walk the distance from the range of the first surveillance camera to the range of the gate surveillance camera. You have actually posted images on that. That is a lot of analysis that has been done. I should take another look at that "gap" map.

thanks Nancy.
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Elk573



Joined: 08 Aug 2018
Posts: 26

PostPosted: Sat Aug 11, 2018 11:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nancy- I enjoyed reading that true story about the blood hound and finding the lost child after 45 mins! Thank you for sharing that!

Regarding the dumpster at HOG... Personally I donít think the missing items were dumped there, at least not from the POI footage we saw. The POI doesnít appear to be carrying anything like a purse or laptop bag that heís looking to discard. Also even if the dumpster was searched, the car was parked around noon on the 24th and not noticed until the morning of the 26th. Itís possible that the dumpster(s) could have been emptied between the 24th and 26th timeframe. But I donít know, for some reason Iím thinking the HOG was only used by the POI to dump the car and then get out of there.

Regarding the podcast... Iím in the process of catching up on archived posts on this site because I see that a lot has already been discussed and I hate to repeat things that have already been asked! I also occasionally check the WS site which I see is locked down now.

Iím interested in hearing/learning a bit more about the Ďpunch listí workers that Mr Kesse talked about in the one of the podcast episodes. Iím also interested in the area behind the ĎOak Ridge Baptist churchí and what someone on the podcast thought she observed around Jenniferís disappearance.
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